Hemant Soren’s Shocking Arrest: What will be the direction of the politics of the state and especially the tribal belt of the country due to the arrest of former Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren in the land scam? The answer to this question is being sought from Delhi to Ranchi. There are two main reasons for finding answers-
1. Elections for the 18th Lok Sabha are proposed a few months from now, in which 47 seats are reserved for tribals. This is only 9 percent of the total seats.
2. Shibu and Hemant Soren are counted as the biggest tribal leaders of the country. Shibu Soren is also called Adivasi Dishom Guru (Guru of the country).
Experts say that these are the two reasons due to which the opposition has linked Hemant’s arrest to tribal identity, while senior leaders of the ruling party have maintained silence on it.
Tribal politics and Soren’s family
Shibu Soren first came into politics from the Soren family. Shibu Soren is also called Dishom Guru or Guru Ji in Jharkhand politics. Soren started his political career by agitating against the money lending system. He gave the slogan of water, forest and land, which is the original slogan of the tribals.
In the year 1975, a case of murder was filed against Shibu Soren. Because of this, Soren remained underground for several months.
In the year 1977, Shibu Soren contested the Lok Sabha elections for the first time, but he was defeated. In the 1980 elections, Soren contested from Dumka seat and reached Parliament after winning. After this Soren joined the Jharkhand movement.
When Jharkhand got separated in 2000, Shibu Soren’s role was most important in it. In 2004, Shibu Soren became the Chief Minister of Jharkhand for the first time, but due to lack of majority, he soon had to leave the post.
Shibu Soren has been the Chief Minister of Jharkhand thrice and a minister at the Centre. Currently 4 members of the Soren family are in active politics. Shibu’s son Hemant has been the Chief Minister of Jharkhand twice and a Rajya Sabha member.
Shibu’s younger son Basant and elder daughter-in-law Sita are currently MLAs. Shibu Soren is the head of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, which is currently the largest party in the Jharkhand Assembly. JMM also has influence on tribal seats of Bengal, Chhattisgarh and Bihar.
If the tribals get angry, what will be the impact?
The biggest question is that if the tribals are angry with Hemant’s arrest, then how much impact will it have in the upcoming Lok Sabha and Jharkhand assembly elections?
First know the political power of the tribal community
If seen in terms of population, the total number of tribals in the country is around 10 crores. Keeping this population in mind, 47 seats have been reserved for tribals in the Lok Sabha. This is about 9 percent of the total seats in the Lok Sabha.
For tribals, maximum 6 seats are reserved in Madhya Pradesh, 5-5 in Odisha-Jharkhand, 4-4 in Chhattisgarh-Gujarat and Maharashtra, 3 in Rajasthan, 2-2 in Karnataka-Andhra and Meghalaya, while one Lok Sabha seat is reserved in Tripura. Is.
Apart from the reserved seats, there are about 15 seats in the Lok Sabha, where the tribal community population is around 10-20 percent. This means that tribals also have an important role in electing the Parliament on these seats.
After the Lok Sabha elections 2014, there has been a lot of change in the voting pattern of tribals. In the Lok Sabha Elections, the tribals have overwhelmingly voted in favor of the BJP, whereas in the assembly elections, the tribals have got more votes for the opposition.
In the year 2019, BJP had won about 28 out of 47 seats reserved for tribals. Opposition parties had won 19 seats.
In the 2014 elections also, BJP had won 26 out of 47 seats reserved for tribals. In both these elections, the party had made a clean sweep of most of the tribal seats in Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
Who will benefit? Understand from experts
Senior journalist Surendra Soren says, “It is very difficult to understand the tribals. Earlier, it was said about Shibu Soren that he understands the pulse of the tribals, but now he himself is ill. He further says, “At present, due to generational change, the tribal voters are divided into two parts. . One part is of people between 18 to 35 years of age and the other part is of people above 35 years of age.
According to Soren, “The emotional appeal of Hemant’s arrest can have an impact on the older generation of tribals, but how the new people will behave will largely depend on JMM’s future strategy.”
Soren further says, “What turn the tribals will take in the country’s politics will be known only when the elections come closer.” If ED is successful in bringing solid evidence against Hemant, it may also cause loss to the opposition.
A lot depends on Kalpana Soren’s political entry
Experts say that if Hemant does not get bail soon, a lot will also depend on Kalpana Soren’s political entry. It is being said that due to the time of elections, Hemant did not make Kalpana the Chief Minister and in her place the CM’s chair was given to Champai Soren.
Surendra Soren says, “Kalpana Soren’s political entry can change the political trend. The way Hemant Soren fought and went to jail, the tribals have an emotional attachment towards Kalpana. However, the internal politics of his family will also decide many things.
Shibu Soren’s elder daughter-in-law Sita Soren is politically opposing Kalpana’s coronation. Sita says that being the elder daughter-in-law of the house, her claim on a higher position is stronger. In such a situation, many things will become clear only after the elections come closer.
