Furious Chhote Chaudhary: Akhilesh’s Actions Spark Anger – What’s Brewing Behind the Scenes? Why is Jayant Chaudhary important in UP politics?

After Bihar, rumors of a rift within the Indian alliance have escalated in Uttar Pradesh. Speculations are rife about the potential departure of Jayant Choudhary’s party, the RLD. Sources suggest that pending approval, Jayant Choudhary may announce the RLD’s separation from the India alliance coinciding with Rahul Gandhi’s upcoming visit to UP.

Rahul Gandhi’s yatra is scheduled to commence in UP via Chandauli on February 14th. According to RLD sources, discussions are underway with the Bharatiya Janata Party regarding seat-sharing. Upon approval, Jayant Chaudhary is poised to lead the RLD’s exit from the alliance.

For the past five years, Jayant has been a crucial figure in the alliance with the SP, playing a pivotal role in UP politics. Recently, Akhilesh Yadav also pledged to allocate seven seats in UP to Jayant Chaudhary as part of the agreement.

Akhilesh had given these 7 seats to Jayant

On January 19, Akhilesh Yadav had announced to contest the 2024 elections with Jayant Chaudhary. Under the agreement, Akhilesh Yadav had promised to give 7 Lok Sabha seats to Jayant Chaudhary. 

According to RLD sources, Akhilesh promised to give Baghpat, Muzaffarnagar, Kairana, Bijnor, Mathura, Hathras and Amroha seats to Jayant under the agreement. 

There are two stories behind why RLD was given 7 seats –

• The biggest reason for giving 7 seats is the loss of state level status from RLD. In 2023, the Election Commission had withdrawn the state level party status from RLD citing low vote percentage. To achieve this again, Jayant  will have to get 8 percent of the total valid votes in the Loksabha Elections.
• The seat sharing formula in the India alliance was decided on the basis of assembly only. During the assembly elections, SP had given 33 seats to RLD. If we look at this mathematics in Lok Sabha, then it fits around 6.56 i.e. around 7 seats.

Then why is Jayant angry with Akhilesh?

Why is Jayant Chaudhary angry with Akhilesh Yadav despite getting 7 seats under the agreement, this question is in the headlines in political circles. Let us know it in detail-

1. Condition of ‘Symbol yours and Candidate ours’

According to RLD sources, Akhilesh Yadav has announced to give 7 seats under the agreement, but one of his conditions has angered Chhote Choudhary. According to the condition, the symbol on 4 out of 7 seats that went to RLD will be of RLD, but the name of the candidate will be decided by SP.

According to RLD sources, there is pressure on Jayant to make Iqra Hasan from Kairana, Harendra Mallik from Muzaffarnagar, Shyam Sundar Sharma from Mathura and any SP candidate from Bijnor.

Sources say that when Jayant put this proposal before the cadre, everyone rejected it outright. RLD leaders said why would they compromise for just 2 seats?

2. Conspiracy to contest on Amroha seat!

SP transferred Amroha seat to Jayant. Kunwar Danish Ali is currently the MP on this seat, who is being discussed about contesting from Congress. This seat is Muslim and Jat dominated. 

A senior leader of RLD, on the condition of anonymity, tells ABP News – This has been done cleverly. Everyone knew that Danish Ali was planning to fight against Congress and he was vocal against the Modi government.

According to RLD sources, Akhilesh was working on the strategy to fight Congress and RLD in UP through Amroha.

3. Rejecting the demand for Deoria seat of Purvanchal

According to RLD sources, as per the agreement, Jayant Chaudhary had demanded Akhilesh Yadav to give him a seat in Purvanchal also. Jayant said that we have support base in Deoria, but SP rejected this demand. 

How far did the deal between Jayant and BJP reach?

According to RLD sources, talks between Jayant Chaudhary and Bharatiya Janata Party have reached the final stage. Under the agreement, Jayant is demanding 5 seats from BJP. These seats are- Mathura, Baghpat, Hathras, Muzaffarnagar and Bijnor. However, BJP is ready to give only 3 seats. 

A senior leader of RLD says that BJP has proposed to give one Rajya Sabha seat along with Baghpat, Bijnor and Amroha seats. 

According to this leader, if Jayant agrees to go with BJP, then the alliance can be announced before February 16. Actually, 16th February is the last date for nomination for Rajya Sabha elections.

Jayant’s party had also contested elections with BJP in 2009. At that time, BJP had given 5 seats to RLD as per the agreement and RLD had won all the 5 seats. 

On the question of going with BJP again, UP RLD chief Ramashish Rai says – There has been no discussion with Jayant ji on this issue, nor has any decision been taken at the cadre level.

Rai further says – There is definitely some confusion in the cadre, but only Jayant Chaudhary will decide with whom to contest the elections and whatever his decision is, everyone will accept it. 

Why is Jayant important in UP politics?

In the realm of Uttar Pradesh politics, Jayant Chaudhary holds significant importance due to his influence over crucial voter demographics. Western UP, where Jat, Muslim, and Dalit voters wield considerable sway, comprises 23 Lok Sabha seats. Jat voters, constituting approximately 18 percent of the population, play a decisive role in determining the outcome of 12 seats in this region.

Jats are traditionally aligned with the RLD, making them a pivotal constituency for Jayant. Following Jats, Dalit voters hold substantial influence, with current leanings towards the BJP and BSP. Muslims, forming another significant voting bloc, typically align with the India alliance.

Experts assert that success in Western UP hinges upon coalition-building within the Formula 2 community. Jayant’s grandfather, Chaudhary Charan Singh, leveraged alliances based on the ‘Ajgar’ (Ahir, Jat, Gurjar, and Rajput) and ‘Majgar’ (Muslim, Jat, Gurjar, and Rajput) formulas to navigate Jatland politics and ascend to the Prime Minister’s office.

In the 2014 elections, the BJP forged alliances between Dalits and Jats, resulting in sweeping victories across Western UP. However, in 2019, opposition forces disrupted this equation, leading to BJP’s loss of 7 seats. The party secured victories in only 3 seats, albeit by narrow margins.

In the 2022 assembly elections, Jayant Chaudhary skillfully orchestrated alliances between Muslim and Jat communities through collaboration with the SP, securing resounding victories in districts such as Meerut, Shamli, and Muzaffarnagar.