Rahul Gandhi: After doing calculations till the last moment, Congress has ended the suspense of Amethi and Raebareli. Rahul Gandhi will not contest from his traditional seat Amethi. The party has fielded him from Rae Bareli, from where Sonia Gandhi has been contesting elections. In 2019, Smriti Irani defeated Rahul Gandhi by about 55 thousand votes in Amethi seat. Whereas Sonia Gandhi won the Rae Bareli seat by about 1.7 lakh votes.
Let’s try to understand the whole equations – why Rahul Gandhi decided to leave Amethi at the last moment and contest from Raebareli. If Rahul wins both Rae Bareli and Wayanad seats, then whom will he choose?
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Rahul Gandhi had 4 big challenges in Amethi…
1. Congress has only 14% votes in Amethi assembly seat
If we look at the last 4 assembly elections of Uttar Pradesh, the average vote share of Congress in Amethi assembly seat has decreased. In the 2007 elections, Congress had secured 34.2% vote share, which continuously decreased till the 2022 elections and shrunk to 14.2%.
In the 2017 assembly elections, BJP won 4 out of 5 assembly seats in Amethi and SP got one seat. After this, in the 2022 assembly elections, BJP won two out of five assembly seats of Amethi Lok Sabha. Also, the margin of victory on each seat ranged from about 22 thousand to 77 thousand. SP won the seats of Gauriganj and Amethi. Congress could not win any assembly seat from here. It stood third in 4 assembly seats, while it stood second in Jagdishpur seat.
2. Smriti Irani built a house in Amethi, Rahul made only 2 visits
In the 2019 elections, Smriti Irani had promised that if she wins from Amethi, the public will not have to go to Delhi to meet the MP. Fulfilling that promise, Smriti built her house in Amethi in February 2024. Union Minister Smriti gave a message that she will live among the people of Amethi and work for them. Smriti Irani has also become a voter of Amethi. According to the MP’s representative Vijay Gupta, Smriti Irani is a voter from Medan village of Gauriganj.
Smriti Irani’s political stature has increased due to being a minister at the center. Having a BJP government in the state and at the center has helped Smriti in developing Amethi. Smriti has worked to build an emotional bond with the people of Amethi.
On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi has distanced himself from Amethi after the 2019 defeat. After reviewing the reasons for his defeat on 19 July 2019, Rahul reached Amethi for the first time in December 2021 after about two and a half years. Rahul had come here to participate in the Jan Jagran Abhiyan of Congress. After this, Rahul Gandhi came to Amethi after 2 years during the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra.
3. Trusted leaders of Gandhi family in Amethi joined BJP
Many leaders who were called the generals of Amethi Congress and Gandhi family left Congress after 2019 and joined BJP. For example, Dr. Sanjay Singh, who established the Gandhi family in Amethi, joined BJP after the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Dr. Sanjay has been an MLA and MP from Amethi. In the UP 2022 elections, he lost to SP candidate Maharaji Devi.
Similarly, in 2017, Jang Bahadur Singh left the Congress and joined the BJP. He cited his unhappiness with the policies of the Congress as the reason for this. ‘Amethi has become synonymous with bad roads.’ Jang Bahadur was directly involved in the murder of the newly elected Pradhan in 1995, in which he was sentenced to 10 years in 2021.
Just before the Lok Sabha elections in March, in the presence of Union Minister Smriti Irani, dozens of Congress workers, including former state general secretary of Congress Rajeshwar Singh and former block pramukh of Bazar Shukul Daddan Singh, joined the BJP. Since the announcement of the elections, many regional leaders of Congress have joined the BJP.
4. BJP’s traditional upper caste vote is a big challenge for Congress
According to the Election Commission’s 2019 data, there were 17.16 lakh total voters in Amethi Lok Sabha. If we look at it from a caste perspective, the highest number of them are Scheduled Caste (SC) voters. There are about 26% Dalit voters on this seat. Among the upper caste voters, Brahmins are 18% and Kshatriyas are 11%.
Upper caste i.e. Brahmin and Kshatriya voters are traditionally considered to be BJP’s vote bank. BJP can also get the support of Dalit votes. In such a situation, a good number of caste votes in Amethi can go towards BJP. Balancing the caste equation would have been a big challenge for Rahul Gandhi.
What would have been the impact if Rahul Gandhi had contested from Amethi in 2024 and lost?
Rahul Gandhi is the biggest leader of the Congress. Whereas Smriti does not even figure in the top 20 leadership of BJP. Rahul losing the election to Smriti once again in his own stronghold would have proved to be a big blow to his image. It would have had a big impact on the remaining brand of the Congress and its revival efforts.
‘Rahul Gandhi’s decision to contest from Raebareli is correct. Rahul has a high chance of winning from Rae Bareli. This will be less risky for both Congress and Rahul. It would have been difficult for Rahul to defeat Smriti. The atmosphere in Amethi seat is similar to the 2019 elections.’
But according to the Constitution, a politician can represent only one seat. Rahul has already contested from Wayanad. If he had to contest from Amethi, it should have been clear beforehand. Last time too, contesting from both the places was the reason for Rahul’s defeat. If Rahul is not completely sure of his victory in Amethi, then he should not contest the election.
IF Rahul Gandhi had lost the seat from Amethi, he would have suffered a great political defeat. Congress’s confidence would have also been shaken. In the coming times, Congress would have come to the brink of extinction in UP. Rahul Gandhi has decided to contest the elections with political discretion, leaving aside his emotions.
If Rahul wins both Raebareli and Wayanad, which seat will he choose?
Congress is facing a big dilemma at this time. It is important for Congress to maintain a balance between the South and the North. In such a situation, the formula seems to be that Priyanka should not be fielded and Rahul Gandhi should try to win both the seats (Rae Bareli and Wayanad).
It is important for Rahul to contest because he is the face of Congress right now. He should not be seen running away from the fight. If Rahul Gandhi wins both the seats, then Priyanka should contest the by-election from Wayanad. This way the Gandhi family will remain in the North and South. Also, the balance between North and South will be maintained. Congress will remain firmly established in the Hindi heartland.
According to Congress leaders, if Rahul wins both the seats then it will be easy for him to choose Rae Bareli citing the long connection of the Gandhi family.
Gandhi family won Amethi 9 times, Smriti Irani had stopped the victory chariot
In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP fielded Smriti Irani against Rahul Gandhi. Despite UPA government’s anti-incumbency, corruption, inflation and Modi wave, Rahul Gandhi saved the Amethi seat. However, Rahul’s victory margin in 2009 was 3.7 lakh, which came down to 1.07 lakh in 2014. Rahul did win in all the five assembly constituencies of Amethi Lok Sabha, but the margin reduced considerably.
In the 2019 elections, Smriti Irani defeated Rahul by about 47 thousand votes in Amethi. Leaving aside Amethi assembly constituency, Smriti defeated Rahul in the remaining four assembly constituencies. In this election, Rahul was not confident about the Amethi seat. Due to this, he also contested from Wayanad.
It is clear from the above graphic that Smriti Irani’s victory in 2019 was not the result of a single election wave. She systematically made inroads into Rahul Gandhi’s voters in every area of Amethi. First she reduced the margin of defeat in 2014 and then won in 2019. This pattern was also visible in the assembly elections. Whatever the result of 2024, but this time the competition between Rahul and Smriti in Amethi is very close.
Why did Rahul Gandhi leave Amethi but decide to contest from Raebareli?
The Congress and the Gandhi family do not want to be out of their traditional seats and especially the electoral politics of North India and be confined to other areas. Rahul is being fielded in Rae Bareli keeping in mind the traditional vote bank of the Congress.
Rahul contesting from Raebareli seat will lead to political concentration in UP. This will send a message that Congress has still not completely distanced itself from its stronghold UP. There is also a saying that if you want to remain in central politics, then you cannot ignore UP.
Congress cannot let itself be tagged as a party of the South and has nothing to do with the North. Similarly, the entire machinery of BJP is an expert in sticking tags. If Rahul does not contest the elections, then that tag will remain a challenge for Congress for a long time.
