Prajwal Revanna Sex Scandal in Karnataka: Voting for two phases of Lok Sabha elections (Lok Sabha Elections 2024) has been completed. Voting will be held on May 7 in the third phase. Voting will also be held on the remaining 14 seats of Karnataka in the third phase. With this, the voting work will be completed here. In this second and last phase of elections in the state, there is a direct contest between BJP and Congress . There is no JDS candidate on any seat in this phase, but it is being discussed because the sex scandal of former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda’s grandson and MP Prajjwal Revanna has made the state elections high voltage.
This time BJP has put in a lot of effort in the South and Karnataka is called the ‘Gateway of South’ for BJP. If BJP’s voters shift this time, which factors will be important for that?
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JDS is an ally of BJP in Karnataka, so Congress is trying to corner it by raising this issue loudly. Meanwhile, Home Minister Amit Shah has retaliated against Congress by saying that law and order is a state issue. Why has the Congress government of Karnataka not taken any action on this till now?
The reason for Congress’ aggressive campaign on the Prajwal Revanna issue is the 14 seats in the second phase that are held by the BJP. In the last three Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has been strengthening this fort. In the last election, its strike rate was 100%.
Voting for 14 seats in Karnataka on May 7
Talking about the last three Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka, out of the 14 seats on which elections are to be held, BJP won 12 seats with 47 percent votes in 2009, 11 seats with 50 percent votes in 2014 and all 14 seats with 55 percent votes in 2019. Talking about Congress, it won 2 seats with 42 percent votes in 2009 and 3 seats with 42 percent votes in 2014. In 2019, the vote percentage of Congress fell to 33 percent and it lost all 14 seats. If Congress manages to snatch even a single seat, it will be beneficial for it.
By raising the issue of Prajwal Revanna, Congress wants to attract more and more women voters. In the first round of elections in Karnataka, more women have voted than men. The reason behind BJP’s hold on Karnataka is the caste equation there, which has been in favor of BJP in many consecutive elections.
If we compare the previous assembly and Lok Sabha elections, whatever the result of the assembly elections, BJP has been dominant in the Lok Sabha elections. The magic of the name Modi has also been very strong on the people of Karnataka. In 2014, while BJP got 27 percent votes across the country, 57 percent people voted in favor of BJP in Karnataka. If we talk about the last election i.e. 2019, while BJP got 32 percent votes across the country, 54 percent people supported BJP in Karnataka.
Now the question is who is gaining and who is losing in this round of elections in Karnataka after the Prajwal Revanna sex scandal has come to light? How big a challenge is it for the BJP to save all 14 seats? Is the Congress in a position to make a dent in the BJP’s vote bank?
22% vote difference between BJP and Congress
If we look at the results of the last election, there is a difference of 22 percent votes between BJP and Congress. BJP got 55 percent votes and Congress got 33 percent, is it easy to bridge such a big gap? How big is the issue of Revanna, can it influence the voters, especially women voters?
When it comes to women voters, is Revanna’s issue the only important one or can other factors also work. BJP raised the issue of Mangalsutra, Congress raised the state government’s schemes, which factor can have more impact. This question becomes important because in the last phase, women voters have voted more than men.
There is a lot of caste politics in Karnataka. How important will this equation of Lingayat, Vokkaliga, Dalit and OBC castes be? Last time there was an alliance between Congress and JDS. This time JDS is with BJP. Whether this is beneficial for BJP or friendship with JDS can harm BJP, it will be known only on the day of results on 4th June.
