Lok Sabha Elections 2024: In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Congress won only 52 seats. Congress did not even open its account in 17 states. On the other hand, BJP won 303 seats. BJP got almost all the seats in 10 states.
Despite this, Congress remains at the center of the speeches of senior party leaders including Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, JP Nadda. From April 1 to May 20, PM Modi made a total of 1159 posts on X. Among these, Congress was mentioned the most, 200 times.
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How 173 seats with a face-to-face contest can prove to be decisive in 2024…
Congress can spoil BJP’s game by winning 90 seats
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, there was a direct contest between BJP and Congress on 190 seats. Out of these, BJP won 175 i.e. 92% seats, while Congress could win only 15 seats. That means there is a direct contest between BJP and Congress on one-third of the seats in the country. BJP has reached saturation in these. Now Congress has nothing to lose here.
In the 2024 general elections, Congress is contesting the elections by forming INDIA Alliance with regional parties. Congress left seats for the parties in the alliance in those areas where regional parties were in a strong position. This time Congress fielded only 328 candidates, whereas in 2019 Congress contested the elections with 421 candidates.
In the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP had won a landslide victory in the Hindi belt states i.e. North and West, and there was a direct contest between Congress and BJP on the same seats. In such a situation, the biggest responsibility of stopping the victory march of BJP lies on the shoulders of Congress.
Shekhar Gupta, editor of ‘The Print’, writes, ‘The more new seats Congress wins, the more BJP’s total tally will be reduced. If 10 more seats are added to Congress’ 52 seats, it will be a loss of 10 seats for BJP and if it reaches the figure of 90, it can only stop BJP below the figure of 272. On the other hand, if Congress gets 100 seats, there will be turmoil in national politics.’
Congress has the most scope in the Hindi belt and Western India
There was a head-to-head contest on 106 seats in the states of North India, in which BJP won 100 seats and Congress was reduced to 6. Even if Congress’s seats increase to 30 in 2024 on these seats, 24 new seats will be cut from BJP’s account. Many psephologists including Yogendra Yadav do not consider it impossible for Congress.
There was a direct contest between BJP and Congress on 44 seats in Western India i.e. Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa and Daman Diu. In 2019, BJP had won 42 of these seats. On the other hand, Congress got only 2 seats. Any lead of Congress here will be a setback for BJP.
Out of the 190 seats on which there was a direct contest between Congress and BJP in 2019, Congress had fielded candidates on 173 seats in 2024 as well with a strong alliance. These include 173 seats from 18 states and 5 union territories including Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana. That is, out of the total 328 candidates of Congress, 173 candidates can give a tough challenge to BJP.
BJP clearly knows that any electoral gain of Congress will directly be a loss to BJP
That is why all BJP leaders including PM Modi are so aggressive against Congress. Apart from this, there are 3 other reasons too…
1. Only Congress can give a pan-India fight to BJP
Congress has ruled the country for a long time. It has been in power in many states before. The party’s organization is in almost every corner of the country. BJP cannot ignore these things in the 2024 elections.
CSDS’s Prof. Sanjay Kumar says, ‘If BJP is competing with any national political party, then it is Congress right now. If we look at the 2014 and 2019 elections, we can understand that after BJP, Congress is the biggest party and Congress has a bigger support base than the regional parties. Congress is the only party that is competing with BJP at the national level.’
Political expert Harshvardhan Tripathi says, ‘Since independence, Congress was either faced by the Communist Party or the Jansangh. The Communist parties lost their relevance by forming an alliance with Congress and now the contest is only between Congress and BJP. Currently, after BJP, if there is any party strong in terms of MPs, MLAs and organization across the country, then it is Congress.’
2. Congress claims to form government by winning 125 seats
Congress leader and Telangana CM Revanth Reddy said in an interview, ‘If BJP wants to form the government, it will have to win more than 250 seats, while more than 125 seats will be enough for Congress to form the government.’
The logic behind Revant’s statement is that Congress has contested 328 seats on its own and the rest of the seats with the alliance. In such a situation, if Congress wins more than 125 seats, it will be able to form the government with its alliance partner.
The 2004 elections can be seen as an example of this hypothesis. In 2004, Congress had 145 seats and BJP had 138 seats. Congress won only 7 seats more than BJP and formed the government with an alliance.
Revant has indicated that if today i.e. on 4th June, in the results of the 2019 general election, Congress increases its seats and reaches the figure of around 125 seats, then it will not be easy for the BJP to form the government.
CSDS’s Prof. Sanjay Kumar says, ‘If we look at the parties, most of the parties have formed alliance with Congress and less with BJP. Regional parties find themselves more comfortable in forming alliance with Congress than BJP.’
3. BJP’s anti-Muslim image and Congress’ ‘Mohabbat ki Dukaan’
On 21 April 2024, in a rally in Banswara, Rajasthan, Narendra Modi said, ‘Earlier when their (Congress) government was in power, they had said that Muslims have the first right on the country’s wealth. This means, who will they distribute this wealth to after collecting it? They will distribute it to those who have more children, they will distribute it to the infiltrators. Will your hard-earned money be given to the infiltrators? Do you accept this?’
During the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections in February 2022, Amit Shah was asked in an interview why the BJP does not give tickets to Muslims? To this Shah said, ‘Being the Government of India and a responsible party, BJP has the same relationship with the Muslims of India as it has with a common citizen. But who votes in the elections? This also has to be seen.’
A few days ago, Assam CM and BJP leader Himanta Biswa Sarma said in an interview, ‘I do Hindu-Muslim politics. Till some Hindu-Muslim issues are not resolved in the country, Hindu-Muslim politics will continue in the country’s politics.’
These statements of BJP leaders clearly indicate that BJP focuses more on its core voters i.e. upper castes and OBCs. In this election, BJP’s front line leaders kept avoiding Muslims and kept attacking Congress on Muslim appeasement.
On the other hand, Congress talks about inclusion. Rahul Gandhi even ran a whole campaign on this issue called ‘Mohabbat ki Dukaan’.
Harshvardhan Tripathi explains, ‘After the Communist parties and Congress came together, there are only two streams in the country at the national level. On one side is the center and left which is followed by Congress and its alliance. While the other stream is the right or nationalist which is followed by BJP. At the national level, the competition will be between these two.’
