Syria Crisis 2024: The shifting sands of Syria’s ongoing crisis have caught the world’s attention again. The United States launched airstrikes targeting ISIS, Israel entered Syrian territory for the first time in 50 years, and President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia. These developments have raised questions about the future of Syria, with many experts suggesting it might fracture into five parts, becoming the epicenter of global power struggles.
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The Syrian civil war, which began during the Arab Spring in 2011, escalated when Assad’s government cracked down on protesters, favoring the Alawite community. This sparked a multi-faceted conflict involving extremist groups, regional players like Iran and Turkey, and global powers like Russia and the US. Over the years, the war has left over 500,000 dead and millions displaced.
The US Strikes Back: Why Bomb Syria Now?
On December 8, 2024, the US dropped 140 bombs on 75 ISIS targets in Syria. General Michael Eric Kurilla, head of US Central Command (Centcom), declared that the US would not allow ISIS to regroup, stating, “We will hold all organizations accountable if they partner with ISIS in any way.”
The US viewed the recent surge in ISIS activity as a direct threat, especially after intelligence revealed alliances between rebel groups and the terror organization. By attacking ISIS, the US aims to dismantle this network. However, critics argue that America’s involvement risks repeating the cycle of instability, as seen in Afghanistan.
Russia’s Asylum for Assad: Strategic or Symbolic?
After Assad fled Syria on December 8, Russia granted him asylum. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed the decision, underscoring Russia’s historical ties to Syria. The nation hosts Russia’s only military base in the Middle East, crucial for maintaining Moscow’s presence in the region.
Middle East expert Kabir Taneja observed, “Syria’s military base is pivotal for Russia. Losing it would mean the end of their influence in the Middle East.” Despite this, experts argue that offering refuge to Assad adds little value to Russia beyond preserving their longstanding alliance.
Israel’s Historic Move into Syria: A Power Play?
For the first time since 1974, Israeli forces crossed into Syria, capturing a 10-kilometer area of the Golan Heights. Israel has long viewed Syria as a threat due to its ties with groups like Hezbollah. Experts believe this move not only consolidates Israel’s territorial claims but also puts pressure on Iran by weakening its allies in Syria.
By aiding Kurdish fighters, Israel aims to counterbalance Iran’s influence in the region. If successful, this strategy could shift the power dynamics in West Asia in Israel’s favor.
Turkey’s Balancing Act in Syria
While Turkey has historically supported Syrian rebels, it denied involvement in the latest offensive. Turkish officials expressed concerns about the ongoing instability, with Deputy Foreign Minister Nuh Yilmaz stating, “Ankara did not permit or support the recent attack on Syria.”
Turkey’s main interest lies in stabilizing Syria to facilitate the return of millions of refugees currently in Turkey. However, its ambiguous role leaves questions about its long-term strategy in the conflict.
A Nation Divided: Is Syria Breaking Apart?
Experts agree that Syria is on the brink of fragmentation. With rebels controlling major regions like Aleppo, Damascus, and Homs, and external forces like Israel and Turkey occupying parts of the country, the idea of a unified Syria seems increasingly unlikely.
Middle East analyst Rajan Kumar noted, “The situation in Syria indicates an inevitable division. Coastal areas may fall to Alawite groups, while Israel and Turkey consolidate their claims.”
Could Syria Ignite a Third World War?
Although Syria has become a battleground for global powers, experts dismiss the likelihood of it triggering a world war. Rajan Kumar remarked, “The Global South, including countries like India and China, has not aligned itself with any faction in Syria. Without such alliances, a world war remains improbable.”
For now, Syria remains a volatile chessboard where regional and global players jostle for influence, leaving its future uncertain.
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