Bihar Politics: The Bihar Congress has sent a clear message that it will not settle for fewer than the 70 seats it contested in the 2020 assembly elections. This declaration has raised questions about why Congress is taking such a stance so early in the election cycle. Political analysts believe the party senses a shift in the alliance dynamics, with RJD potentially eyeing a greater share of the seats. This realization seems to have spurred Congress into action, with leaders like Purnia MP Pappu Yadav and state Congress President Akhilesh Singh making bold statements that signal a shift from submission to confrontation within the Mahagathbandhan.
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Bihar Politics: Congress’s Fight for Relevance Amid RJD Dominance
Congress’s Demand for a Larger Role
Pappu Yadav recently stated that while the upcoming assembly elections will likely be fought under the Mahagathbandhan, Congress should take on the role of the “big brother” in the alliance. Without directly naming Tejashwi Yadav, Yadav hinted at discontent with the RJD’s leadership style, saying the “stubbornness of certain individuals” has held the alliance back. Meanwhile, Akhilesh Singh has categorically stated that Congress will not contest fewer than the 70 seats it did in 2020.
Earlier, Bihar Congress in-charge Shahnawaz Alam also weighed in, asserting that seat-sharing arrangements should be based on performance metrics such as strike rates rather than hierarchical relationships. This marks a shift in Congress’s approach—from passive participant to active negotiator within the Mahagathbandhan.
RJD’s Concern Over Congress’s Resurgence
Recent developments suggest RJD might be wary of Congress’s growing ambitions in Bihar. Although Congress remains on a weak electoral footing, the party appears to be gradually rebuilding its base. This revival is being reflected in its demands for a greater share in the alliance and leadership roles. For instance, the push to position Pappu Yadav as a prominent leader within Congress is seen as a strategic move to counter RJD’s dominance.
Congress’s recent emphasis on the “strike rate”—its win ratio in elections—indicates a strategic pivot. This newfound assertiveness might stem from a realization that RJD’s current electoral strategy could marginalize Congress. Consequently, Congress’s refusal to contest fewer seats than in 2020 and its demand for leadership roles underscore a desire to reclaim lost ground.
A Frictional Alliance
Seat-sharing among the Mahagathbandhan partners, including RJD, Congress, VIP, and the Left parties, is expected to be contentious. The underlying tension stems from the RJD’s dominance in the alliance and Congress’s increasing reluctance to play second fiddle. This friction has intensified with Congress’s efforts to elevate leaders like Pappu Yadav. His growing stature poses a direct challenge to RJD’s traditional vote bank, which relies heavily on the Muslim-Yadav (MY) equation.
For instance, in the Purnia Lok Sabha constituency, Congress supported Pappu Yadav’s campaign over RJD’s choice. The outcome saw a significant shift in traditional Muslim votes from RJD to Pappu Yadav, highlighting Congress’s potential to disrupt RJD’s electoral calculations.
A Strained Relationship
The tension between Congress and RJD isn’t new. RJD’s past moves—such as sidelining Congress in seat-sharing decisions and promoting its own candidates in key constituencies—have often left Congress on the defensive. In the Begusarai parliamentary seat, for instance, Congress’s demands for a ticket for Kanhaiya Kumar were ignored, further straining relations.
RJD’s reluctance to cede space to Congress stems from its aim to maintain its dominance in Bihar politics. However, this strategy could backfire if Congress decides to assert itself more forcefully or even consider breaking away from the Mahagathbandhan.
The Historical Decline of Congress in Bihar
The Congress party’s journey in Bihar has been one of decline. Before 1990, Congress enjoyed significant electoral success in the state, winning 239 seats in the 1951 assembly elections. However, the Bhagalpur riots of 1989 marked a turning point, leading to a loss of Muslim support. Simultaneously, the rise of leaders like Lalu Yadav, Nitish Kumar, and Ram Vilas Paswan during the Mandal Commission era further eroded Congress’s base.
From dominating Bihar politics, Congress gradually became a minor player, reduced to just 23 seats in the 2000 elections. Post the Bihar-Jharkhand bifurcation, Congress’s fortunes declined further, with the party winning only 4 seats in 2010. Its alliance with RJD since 2005 has often been criticized for reducing Congress to a junior partner, unable to assert its own identity.
Lessons from History
The alliance with RJD has often come at a cost for Congress. By aligning itself with RJD’s MY vote bank, Congress alienated its own traditional voters, including upper castes and Dalits. This shift allowed BJP to emerge as the main opposition party, capitalizing on Congress’s shrinking base. In the 2020 assembly elections, BJP won 80 seats, while Congress managed only 19.
Can Congress Reclaim Its Ground?
The current situation presents both a challenge and an opportunity for Congress. RJD’s growing assertiveness and attempts to dominate the Mahagathbandhan could serve as a wake-up call for Congress to revive its fortunes. The party’s recent moves—such as emphasizing strike rates and demanding leadership roles—suggest it is finally taking steps to reclaim its relevance in Bihar politics.
However, the question remains whether Congress is truly prepared to expand its base or whether these efforts are merely an attempt to secure a few more seats in the upcoming elections. For Congress to stage a meaningful comeback, it must address the structural issues within the party, strengthen its leadership, and reconnect with its traditional voter base.
The Road Ahead
Congress’s demand for a larger role within the Mahagathbandhan reflects a newfound assertiveness, but it also risks alienating its allies. If RJD perceives Congress’s actions as a direct threat to its dominance, it could lead to further friction within the alliance. On the other hand, Congress’s efforts to elevate leaders like Pappu Yadav could help it carve out a distinct identity in Bihar politics.
Ultimately, the future of Congress in Bihar depends on its ability to balance its ambitions with the realities of coalition politics. Whether it chooses to remain a junior partner within the Mahagathbandhan or strike out on its own, the coming months will be crucial in determining the party’s trajectory in Bihar.
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