Assembly Elections 2024: Why Has Jammu and Kashmir Waited 10 Years? Seat Changes Explained—Who Stands to Benefit?

Assembly Elections 2024: On Friday, August 16, the Election Commission announced the dates for the assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana. Voting will be held in Jammu and Kashmir in 3 phases from 18 September to 1 October and the results of this voting will come on 4 October 2024. After this announcement of the Election Commission, assembly elections will be held in Jammu and Kashmir after a full 10 years. 

The special thing is that this is going to be the first assembly election after the removal of Article 370, which gave special status to Jammu and Kashmir, separating Ladakh and making Jammu and Kashmir a union territory and increasing 7 seats through delimitation. 

In such a situation, let us know in detail in this report why assembly elections were not held in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir last time and who is going to benefit from the changed number of seats in the UT. 

First of all understand why elections were not held here in the last five years 

No party got majority: Actually, assembly elections were held here in December 2014. But at that time no party got majority and Governor’s rule was imposed. In March 2015, PDP-Bharatiya Janata Party alliance was formed and Mehbooba Mufti was made the Chief Minister. However, after 3 years i.e. in June 2018, Bharatiya Janata Party broke its alliance with PDP and Governor’s rule was imposed in the state once again.

Repeal of Article 370: After one year of Governor’s rule, i.e. on 5 August 2019, Article 370 was repealed and Jammu and Kashmir was divided into parts – Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. Both of these were declared Union Territories. After which an assembly was formed in Jammu and Kashmir, but not in Ladakh.

Constitutional and legal changes: After the repeal of Article 370, the constitution of Jammu and Kashmir and the state assembly were dissolved. As a result, the process of assembly elections in the state had to be reorganized. It took time to process elections according to the new law and order.

Delimitation Commission: The process of new delimitation of constituencies in Jammu and Kashmir was started after 2019. This process took time as it had to be done according to the new political and population changes. The report of the Delimitation Commission came in 2022, only after which the possibility of elections arose.

Security situation: The security situation in Jammu and Kashmir has always been a key issue for elections. In the years since 2019, conducting elections has been difficult due to terrorism and other security challenges in the region. The government has repeatedly needed more time to stabilise the security situation.

How will BJP benefit from increase in seats in Jammu in delimitation?

Within the last five years, the assembly of Jammu and Kashmir has completely changed. The biggest reason for this is the delimitation that has been completed in this union territory. Due to this, a change in the seats in the Jammu and Kashmir division has also been seen. 

In simple terms, now there are 114 seats in Jammu and Kashmir, including 24 seats from Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). If these 24 seats are removed, then 90 assembly seats remain. Before delimitation, there used to be only 83 seats here. In this way, a total of seven seats have increased. Here too, 6 seats have increased in Jammu division, while one seat has increased in Kashmir division. In this election, people will vote for 43 seats in Jammu region and 47 seats in Kashmir division.

Jammu’s seats increased in delimitation, which party can get benefit 

Opposition parties allege that most of the districts in which the 6 seats in Jammu have been increased in the new delimitation are Hindu majority. According to the 2011 census, Kathua, Samba and Udhampur are Hindu majority.

The number of Hindu voters living in Kathua is 87 percent, while in Samba and Udhampur it is 86% and 88% respectively. In Kishtwar, Doda and Rajouri, the population of Hindus is also 35 to 45 percent. In such a situation, it is believed that the addition of 6 more seats in Jammu in the delimitation will strengthen the BJP. At the same time, PDP and National Conference are likely to suffer losses due to this. 

The parties of Kashmir have many times alleged that through the new delimitation, BJP wants to enhance its political advantage by giving political advantage to the Hindu-dominated Jammu. 

To put it simply, earlier the Muslim-dominated Kashmir of Jammu and Kashmir had 46 seats and 44 seats were required for a majority. On the other hand, the Hindu-dominated Jammu region had only 37 seats. This was the reason that till now most of the chief ministers here have been from Kashmir. But after the new delimitation, this math changed and, out of the total 90 seats in Jammu and Kashmir, now only 43 seats are in Jammu. The remaining 47 seats will be in Kashmir. Out of these seats, 7 are reserved for SC and 9 for ST.

After this major change in seats, 44 percent of the population of Jammu will vote for 48 percent of seats. 56 percent of the people living in Kashmir will vote for the remaining 52 percent of seats. Till now, 56 percent of the people of Kashmir used to vote for 55.4 percent of seats and 43.8 percent of the people of Jammu used to vote for 44.5 percent of seats.

Now understand how many parties contest elections in Kashmir?

According to the Election Commission, leaving aside the national parties, there are currently 32 registered parties in Jammu and Kashmir. Among these, there are some parties which have also got the status of regional parties. In the recent Lok Sabha elections, a total of 22 parties contested. These include BJP, Congress and BSP.

Congress, BJP, Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, People’s Democratic Party have been dominant in the valley. Apart from this, Sajjad Gani Lone’s party has also been winning elections on some seats.

What is Delimitation

Delimitation is the process in which the boundaries of constituencies are redrawn or reconstructed. This process reorganizes constituencies based on population, geographical location, social structure and other important factors. The main purpose of delimitation is to ensure that each constituency has representation of equal population, making democratic representation more fair and effective.

Why is delimitation done?

1. Population changes: Over time, the population of a country or state may increase or decrease. This can lead to an imbalance of population in different constituencies. Delimitation ensures that all constituencies have approximately the same population, so that voters are equally represented.

2. Geographical and administrative changes: Sometimes new administrative units are formed, such as the creation of new districts. Through delimitation these new units are also included as constituencies.

3. Equal representation: The purpose of delimitation is to ensure that all citizens are equally represented. This helps in maintaining the fairness of the democratic process.

4. Social and political balance: During delimitation, various social and political factors are also taken into consideration so that a particular community or region is over-represented or not. This increases the possibility of proper representation of all sections of the society.

How does the process of delimitation take place?

Formation of Delimitation Commission : To carry out delimitation, the government forms an independent Delimitation Commission. This commission determines new boundaries on the basis of census data and other factors.

Suggestions and objections: Suggestions and objections are sought from the public and political parties on the boundaries proposed by the Delimitation Commission. After this, the Commission considers these suggestions and objections and determines the final boundaries.

Final Decision: Once the boundaries decided by the Delimitation Commission are finalised, the decision comes into effect and elections are held according to the new constituencies.

When has delimitation taken place in India?

The process of delimitation has been carried out from time to time in India. After independence, delimitation has been done four times in India so far, and the last time it was done was in 2002-08. Special delimitation of Jammu and Kashmir was done in 2019 after the abrogation of Article 370.

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Assembly Elections 2024: Voting in Jammu and Kashmir on September 18, 25, and October 1; Haryana Voting on October 1; Results on October 4

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