Explainer: Why is this Odisha election the most difficult for Naveen Patnaik?

Naveen Patnaik: After 160 days, Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik will reach the top in the list of leaders who have been the longest serving Chief Minister of India. Till now this record is recorded in the name of Sikkim Chief Minister Pawan Kumar Chamling. 

However, to break this record, Patnaik will have to win the 2024 elections. In Odisha, elections are proposed for 147 assembly seats and 21 Lok Sabha seats. 

This election is considered important for Naveen Patnaik, who has been in power in Odisha for 24 years, because – 

• BJP and Congress have laid a strong siege at the local level. The new equation created in many districts has troubled BJD.
• After the arrival of IAS officer VK Pandian, the fight for succession in the internal politics of BJD has intensified. 

In such a situation, the biggest question is whether Patnaik will be able to gallop on the slippery road of Odisha this time? 

Gujral brought him into politics, Vajpayee gave him life

This incident is of 1997. Biju Patnaik died in April 1997 at the age of 81. At the time of Biju’s death, Inder Kumar Gujral was in power at the Centre. Prime Minister Gujral asked Naveen to enter politics. 

Naveen accepted Gujral’s offer and staked claim from Aska Lok Sabha seat. However, Naveen soon realized that there was nothing much for him in central politics. 

In December 1997, he formed his own party, Biju Janata Dal, in the name of his father, whose objective was to make Odisha a leader. In an interview given to India Today magazine, Naveen Patnaik says – I got my father’s inheritance, but not the privileges. 

In the 1998 Lok Sabha elections, Naveen Patnaik’s party contested the elections in alliance with BJP. NDA won 16 out of 21 seats. Patnaik was made the Union Mines Minister in the Vajpayee government. 

In the year 2000, Patnaik’s fortunes took a U-turn. BJD alliance won 106 seats in the assembly elections. BJD alone got 68 seats. Patnaik became the leader of the party legislature party and assumed the post of Chief Minister for the first time.

Patnaik became the factor of victory, 5 points

In 2004, Patnaik decided to hold assembly elections along with Lok Sabha. Patnaik’s argument was that this would save money for poor states like Odisha. In the 2004 elections, BJD alliance won 93 seats. 

Patnaik never looked back after this. He registered record wins in 2009, 2014 and 2019. 

According to a survey of CSDS in 2014, 58 percent people had openly said that they would vote for Naveen Patnaik. 38 percent people considered the development of Odisha as good and said that they would vote in its name. 

In such a situation, let us know how Patnaik became the victory factor in Odisha politics…

1. Talked about development, focused on timing –  After becoming the Chief Minister, Naveen Patnaik focused most on development. He worked to convey the schemes of the Center and the State to the people without getting into any conflict.

Patnaik’s 5T (Transformation) formula is quite popular in Odisha. 

According to experts, the development formula itself did not allow caste and religion based politics to succeed in Odisha. The Karana caste to which Patnaik belongs has less than 1 percent population in Odisha. 

In comparison, the population of other backward and Dalit-tribals is much higher. 

2. Did not allow the center of power to be divided – Naveen Patnaik never allowed the formation of two centers of power in BJD and Odisha government. Whenever any leader tried like this, he was shown the way out before time.

The list of leaders who have been out include big names like Baijayant Pandya, Damodar Raut, Soumya Ranjan and Priyaranjan Mahapatra. Patnaik has also removed about one and a half dozen ministers from the post in the name of corruption. It is a matter of fact that no action was taken against most of the leaders later. 

3. Made a strategy to have a separate assembly from the Lok Sabha – Having the Lok Sabha and the Assembly together has proved beneficial for Naveen Patnaik. Patnaik’s party has proved to be a failure many times in the Lok Sabha, but has achieved a record victory every time in the assembly elections.

Not only this, in the places where it lost in the Lok Sabha, BJD registered a bumper victory in the Assembly.

For example, in 2019, BJD candidates lost on Bargarh Lok Sabha seat, but BJD won all the seven assembly seats of this Lok Sabha. 

Similar results were also seen in Balasore, Bolangir, Kalahandi and Bhubaneswar seats.

4. Kept the big parties confused about the alliance – Before every election, Naveen Patnaik kept the big parties confused about the alliance. In 2008, Patnaik broke the alliance with BJP, after which discussions started that Patnaik could go with Congress.

Patnaik maintained this confusion till the end of the elections. He did the same thing in 2019 also. Due to his good friendship with Narendra Modi , there was speculation about Patnaik joining NDA, but at the end Patnaik decided to fight alone.

5. Ended the dominance of independents and small parties – Till 2004, independents and other parties were very effective in Odisha, but Patnaik ended the dominance of these parties. 

In 2004, independents and other parties had won 16 assembly seats, which were reduced to 0 by 2019. In 2004, the vote percentage of independents and other parties was around 20, which has now reduced to around 5 percent.

How easy is Patnaik’s path this time?

The big question is how easy is Naveen Patnaik’s path going to be in this election. This question is also because for the first time in Odisha, Congress and BJP are contesting elections very strongly. 

In the last few months, Congress has created a strong alliance of tribals and Dalits in Odisha. Congress is mainly focusing on 8 districts of South and West Odisha. Congress once had a strong support base in these districts. 

Congress has started a campaign in the state by claiming that BJD and BJP are united. However, the biggest crisis of Congress is the absence of local leaders. 

According to senior journalist Jyoti Prakash Mohapatra,  in the last 10 years, except a few leaders, all the big leaders of Congress have fled. The party lacks a strong face to fight at the local level. 

Considering this shortage, the party has decided to give ticket to a new face. According to Congress in-charge Ajay Kumar, Congress has prepared a new strategy for ticket distribution.

Rai says- This time only those who are working on the land will get tickets. Many of our leaders are also returning home, who had left earlier due to some reason. 

This time BJP also does not want to leave any stone unturned in Odisha. The party has recently launched a campaign to seek suggestions from people for the manifesto. In the last elections, BJP had won 23 seats in Odisha. 

There were 23 seats where the party candidate had to face defeat by less than 10 thousand votes. This time BJP is working on the strategy of transformation in Odisha through the Developed Odisha, Developed India campaign.

However, Patnaik’s party is also working on the strategy of alliance with BJP. It is being said that if everything goes well, an alliance can be announced between the two parties in 1-2 days.

Under the agreement, BJP can contest more seats in the Lok Sabha and BJD can contest more seats in the assembly elections.

Regarding the discussion of alliance between the two, Jyoti Prakash says – It is beneficial for both the parties. Congress has nothing to lose in Odisha. If BJP and BJD contest elections separately, it is possible that Congress may get some advantage.

According to Jyoti Prakash, both the parties would not want Congress to benefit from the fight among their voters.

Three issues are important, everyone’s eyes are on Naveen Babu

Talking about the issue, unemployment is an important issue in Odisha. It has made a lot of impact in the last elections also. According to Congress, 30 lakh people migrated from Odisha in search of employment.

Agricultural crisis is also a big issue for the people in the state. 5 out of 6 areas of the state are coastal and the farmers here are dependent on monsoon. Due to cyclones coming from time to time, many times the standing crops get destroyed. 

For Patnaik, the internal politics of BJD is also not going to increase tension. Leaving aside the local level mobilization in many districts including Koraput and Puri, factionalism within the party is dominant even at the state level. 

The main reason for this is the ongoing succession fight in the party. Recently, Naveen Patnaik had given a big statement to calm this fight. He had said that the public will decide who will be my successor?

It is being said that Patnaik had given this statement to end the recent crisis.