Is the Lok Sabha Election 2024 a Major Challenge for BJP? A Comprehensive Look at the States from UP to Gujarat.

Lok Sabha Elections 2024: The Election Commission has announced the dates of Lok Sabha elections on March 16, 2024. This time the elections will be held in 7 phases like the previous Lok Sabha elections and the beginning of voting i.e. the first phase of voting will be on 19th April. 

This entire election process is going to last for 43 days and the date of counting of votes has been fixed for June 4. The new government of India will be announced with the counting of votes. At present, all the parties contesting the elections are also announcing their candidates.

While on one hand NDA has set a target of winning more than 400 seats, on the other hand the alliance of opposition parties INDIA is also fully prepared to stop NDA from achieving this target.

Let us understand in detail in this report what is the equation in which state in Lok Sabha elections 2024 and which seats are the biggest challenge for BJP to win. 

1. Uttar Pradesh: Important role in making and breaking power

UP is the most important state of the country from political point of view. Because the country gets the maximum number of MPs (80 MPs) from this state. Talking about the politics here, in this state, national and regional parties pass the election on the basis of caste equations and multiplication. 

Bharatiya Janata Party had got a landslide victory in the last two elections in Uttar Pradesh. This victory helped a party other than Congress to form a majority government at the Center for the first time. 

Now if we talk about the present, SP, which had contested with Bahujan Samaj Party in the last elections, has joined Congress this time. However, BJP has high hopes from Nishad Party, Apna Dal and SubhaSP in the East. Whereas in the West, after defeating RLD, Bharatiya Janata Party is once again hopeful of a big victory. 

On one hand, SP and Congress have planned to corner NDA on the pitch of social justice, while on the other hand, Bharatiya Janata Party is trying to win the ground with the help of social justice as well as the tide raised by the inauguration of Ram Mandir. Apart from this, BSP’s decision to enter the fray on its own has also boosted the morale of BJP. 

Effect of changed alliance 

After five years in UP, BJP and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party have come together as allies. It is clear that the effect of this alliance will be seen in the Lok Sabha elections also. This time Rashtriya Lok Dal has also returned along with BJP. In this way, in this Lok Sabha election, only the alliance of Congress and SP was left in front of NDA. 

2. Bihar: Sometimes you come together and sometimes you separate.

Janata Dal United and BJP had come together in this state just a few days ago. After which this alliance has become very strong in Bihar. There are 40 Lok Sabha seats in this state and this number of seats is very important for any party seeking power. 

In the year 2014, NDA had won 31 Lok Sabha seats in the general elections, whereas in 2019 this number increased to 39 seats and now in this election, BJP will try to repeat the 2019 election results.

3. Jammu Kashmir, Ladakh: Abolition of 370 may have an impact

Elections will be held in five phases for five Lok Sabha seats of Jammu and Kashmir. Voting dates have been fixed in the state on April 19, April 26, May 7, May 13 and May 20.

After the removal of Article 370 in these two union territories, BJP has been making positive change an issue here. This time the party has made complete preparations to reach the valley. But two powerful regional parties, National Conference and PDP, are still present in the fray to challenge BJP in this election. The main issue of both these parties is the restoration of Article 370 along with full statehood. 

This time in the elections of these Union Territories, Congress veteran Ghulam Nabi Azad is also contesting by forming a party named Democratic Progressive Azad. Apart from this, ND-PDP has broken the alliance and Congress is alone at present. 

4. Uttarakhand: Challenge for BJP to score a hat-trick 

In Uttarakhand, the party which has held all the five Lok Sabha seats since 2014, now faces the challenge of scoring a hat-trick. The main issue of BJP in this state is the development done in Devbhoomi. Modi government has also made many efforts to promote religious tourism in this state. 

5. Himachal Pradesh: Congress in trouble due to rebellion 

Himachal is the only Congress ruled state in North India. Here only last year, Congress had won power by defeating BJP. However, at present there is dissatisfaction in the party against CM Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu in this state. Vikramaditya Singh, son of former Chief Minister Virendra Singh, is commanding the rebellion. In such a situation, while on one hand the biggest challenge for BJP is to clean sweep again in this Lok Sabha election, on the other hand it is a challenge for Congress to open its account.

6. Punjab: Impact of farmers’ movement 

There has been a big difference in the politics of Punjab in the last five years. Earlier Congress and Akali were the two poles, but now the power of this state is with the Aam Aadmi Party. Akali Dal had broken the alliance with BJP during the farmers movement itself. Meanwhile, leaders Amarinder Singh and Sunil Jakhar, who are considered pillars of Congress, have left Congress and joined BJP.

In this state, AAP is currently included in the opposition alliance INDIA, but the issue regarding seats still seems to be complicated. At present a multi-polar fight is visible in this state. 

7. Haryana: Separation between JJP and BJP

Recently, Bharatiya Janata Party and JJP (Jannayak Janata Party) parted ways in this state. These two parties were running the state government together for more than 4 years, but before the Lok Sabha elections, both of them said hello to each other. 

If experts are to be believed, they are calling this move a win-win situation for both the parties. At present, the biggest contender for Jat votes in Haryana is former Chief Minister and Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda. 

At the same time, due to separation of BJP and JJP, the percentage of Jat votes will also get divided, because the vote base of JJP is also Jat. At the same time, BJP has taken the path of reaching out to a large population of this class by making an OBC leader the Chief Minister.

While on one hand BJP wants to repeat its old performance in this election, on the other hand Congress and opposition parties have taken the issue of alleged sexual harassment of women wrestlers and farmers’ movement to corner BJP. However, like other states, the opposition here is also scattered.

8. Delhi: BJP dominated twice, who will win this time? 

BJP has been dominant in the last two Lok Sabha elections in the capital, but this time Congress and AAP have made an alliance among themselves to defeat BJP. However, in the last two elections, the sum of votes received by AAP and Congress is not more than the votes of BJP, hence at present it would not be correct to say whether these parties will get the benefit of this alliance of AAP and Congress or not. 

9. Karnataka: New political equation

After going with the Congress party in the Lok Sabha elections held in 2019, this time Janata Dal Secular (JDS) has chosen to side with BJP. After the defeat of Bharatiya Janata Party in the assembly elections held in Karnataka, the alliance of Janata Dal Secular and BJP was formed. According to the seat sharing agreement between the two parties, four seats will be left for JDS while BJP candidates will contest on 24 seats.

10. Maharashtra: Shiv Sena and NCP

After an alliance of 25 years in Maharashtra, BJP and Shiv Sena parted ways in the year 2019. To form the government here, Shiv Sena formed an alliance with NCP and Congress and the largest party Bharatiya Janata Party had to sit in the opposition. 

In the month of June 2022, Bharatiya Janata Party made a big move and Shiv Sena got divided into two factions. At the same time, in June 2023, Ajit Pawar, in a way, hijacked NCP and now a faction of NCP led by Sharad Pawar is with Congress while Ajit Pawar’s faction is with Bharatiya Janata Party.

Hindi Patti will write the script of mandate 

In this election, everyone’s eyes are on the 10 states of the Hindi belt. There are 225 MPs in the Lok Sabha from these states and due to its strong performance in these states, BJP has come to power twice in a row. 

There has been a deep attraction towards Hindutva, nationalism and social justice among the voters of these ten states. In the last Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party had defeated its opponents on all three fronts due to better booth performance and better strategy. In these states, while BJP had won 177 seats on its own and 203 seats on the strength of its allies, Congress had won only 5 seats in these states.