Why the Shinde-Fadnavis-Ajit Pawar Trio Fell Behind in Maharashtra| 10 Major Reasons

Maharashtra Politics, Lok Sabha Elections 2024 Result: The results of the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra surprised everyone. It also increased the tension of the NDA for the upcoming assembly elections. The question is why did the BJP lag behind despite the natural alliance with Shiv Sena and the strategic alliance with Ajit Pawar? Despite the grand alliance, many big leaders of BJP also lost in Maharashtra.

Among the NDA alliance parties in Maharashtra, BJP got 9 seats, Shiv Sena (Shinde) got 7 seats and NCP Ajit Pawar got 1 seat. Now questions are arising that what were the reasons due to which NDA had to suffer the loss of seats in Maharashtra. 

1. MVA alliance’s preparation is better 

Mahavikas Aghadi alliance was successful in deciding the alliance and candidate names much before the ruling NDA alliance. 
Except for two seats of Bhiwandi, Sangli, there was no discord in the Mahavikas Aghadi regarding seat sharing and candidate names. Whereas only after the first two phases of voting were over, BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP (Ajit) were able to resolve their differences on Nashik, Thane, Mumbai North West, Mumbai South, Satara, Palghar, Ratnagiri. This left the alliance with very little time for campaigning. 

2. Parties united in NDA but not hearts?

BJP-Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit) came together but there was a lack of coordination among the workers. Ajit Pawar limited himself to the four seats of his party. PM Modi kept himself away from campaigning for NCP candidates. BJP, Shiv Sena, NCP (Ajit) had prominent leaders as well as resources, yet the campaign did not turn out the way it was expected.

3. Local factionalism and politics took a toll

In many seats of Maharashtra, the Mahayuti candidates are alleging that the alliance parties did not support them. Shiv Sena (Shinde) candidate from Maval Lok Sabha constituency Shrirang Barne has alleged that some workers of Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) did not campaign for him. Whereas in Hathkangale Lok Sabha constituency, supporters of Eknath Shinde’s candidate alleged that the BJP supported Swabhimani Shetkari Sangathan and not us.

In Raver Lok Sabha constituency, sitting BJP MP Raksha Khadse had to meet Muktainagar Shiv Sena MLA Chandrakant Patil to campaign for her just a week before polling. In Nashik, Shiv Sena MLA Suhas Kande alleged that NCP (Ajit) leader Chhagan Bhujbal was not actively campaigning for Shiv Sena candidate from Nashik, sitting MP Hemant Godse, as well as the BJP candidate in Dindori.

NCP (Ajit Pawar) party workers have been found campaigning for Sharad faction in Dindori. Shiv Sena leader Shishir Shinde has written a letter to party chief and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde demanding immediate expulsion of senior party leader and former MP Gajanan Kirtikar for making anti-party statements. In his letter, Shishir Shinde accused Gajanan Kirtikar and his wife of siding with the opposition Uddhav Thackeray faction by making anti-party statements on the day of the fifth phase of polling in the state. 

4. BJP’s B team did not work 

The main reason behind BJP and Shiv Sena’s good performance in 2014 and 2019 was Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), which had an alliance with All-India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). This made a dent in Dalit-Muslim votes. This harmed the prospects of Congress and NCP in 8 to 10 parliamentary constituencies. 

This time, Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi was contesting the elections but its impact was not visible. VBA was being seen as BJP’s ‘B’ team and this time it did not even have an alliance with AIMIM.

5. Lion on paper, a pile on the ground! 

BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP (Ajit Pawar) formed a strong alliance on paper. The number of sitting MLAs and MPs in NDA showed strength. Shiv Sena and NCP Ajit’s MLAs and MPs joined NDA but their voters did not come to BJP. BJP was reportedly weakened by its allies, mainly Shiv Sena, which did not get much support. 

Except in Thane and Kalyan areas, Shiv Sena faced difficulties. Shiv Sena UBT faction managed to retain its grassroots support. Eknath Shinde faction is left with only leaders, not Shiv Sena’s core vote bank. Shiv Sena has been left to depend on BJP votes. BJP voters are still loyal. 

6. BJP’s surveys went wrong! 

Before the elections, the BJP cited several ground surveys that showed the Shiv Sena needed to replace several of its sitting MPs. The sitting MPs were unpopular or in a position to lose. The BJP wanted to give the Shiv Sena nine seats, which would have required it to give up some of its MPs and the BJP would contest some of the Shiv Sena’s seats. However, Shinde refused to cut the tickets of the party’s sitting MPs except for three seats and the Sena contested 15 seats.
 
In Mumbai South, the Shiv Sena gave a ticket to Yamini Jadhav, who was not seen as a strong candidate against UBT’s Arvind Sawant. In Mumbai North West, the Shiv Sena struggled to field a candidate against UBT’s Amol Kirtikar. The party gave a ticket to MLA Ravindra Waikar, who had switched to the Shinde camp a few days ago.

The BJP also wanted the Shiv Sena to give up the Nashik seat, but Shinde refused to relent and reiterated MP Hemant Godse, who has put up a tough fight against UBT’s Rajabhau Vaze. Similarly in Hatkanangale, despite BJP’s objections, the Sena reiterated Dhairyasheel Mane. It is putting up a tough fight in Shirdi, Kolhapur, Dharashiv (Osmanabad), Yavatmal-Washim and Hingoli. In all these seats, there is a massive anti-incumbency wave against the Sena candidates.

7. Marathi, Dalit and Muslim new vote bank 

Marathi, Dalit and Muslim new vote bank of Shiv Sena Uddhav faction Marathi votes remained with Uddhav Thackeray. In Maharashtra, Muslims have been avoiding Shiv Sena but Muslims voted heavily for Uddhav Thackeray who took on Modi-Shah. Dalit voters remained with Mahavikas Aghadi. Marathi, Dalit and Muslim new vote bank went in favor of Mahavikas Aghadi. 

8. Maratha reservation issue Maratha vs OBC card against ruling party 

Ruling party has seen big faces lose. The agitation by Maratha leader Manoj Jarange Patil demanding full inclusion of the community in the Other Backward Classes (OBC) category and the state’s refusal to grant full reservation to the Maratha community has not gone down well within the community. As a result, the BJP is facing a tough challenge in at least six of the eight seats in Marathwada.

The BJP was confident of Pankaja Munde’s victory in Beed, but instead the party faced defeat due to the anger of the Marathas. In Jalna, five-time MP Raosaheb Danve, who had won the last election by a margin of about 332,000 votes, lost this time. 

9. Farmers are angry! Employment became an issue 

After being in power for a decade, the BJP has shown its anger among rural farmers over the lack of adequate prices for agricultural produce. In Maharashtra, crops have been affected by unseasonal weather. The state has witnessed unseasonal rains and hailstorms which have destroyed crops. Although the state has given compensation, it is not seen as adequate. Employment also became an issue among the youth. There was also anger among rural youth over the Agniveer Yojana.

10. Danger to the Constitution! 

The way BJP gave the slogan of crossing 400 this time and the opposition made it an issue that if BJP gets 400 seats then the constitution will be changed and reservation will be taken away. This propaganda went as a protest against BJP among Dalits and backward classes. The issue of reservation became a big election issue in Maharashtra.