What does the Voting Trend in the Lok Sabha Elections’ First Phase mean? Will BJP Achieve Mission 370?

Lok Sabha Elections: Voting is to be held in the country in 7 phases for the Lok Sabha elections 2024. For the first phase, about 60 percent votes have been cast in 102 seats in 21 states of the country. The percentage of voting has been seen less in this election as compared to the last election. About 70 percent voting took place in the last election. The voting figure has not reached 80 percent in any state of the country. The highest number of votes were cast in Tripura at 79.9 percent. About 78 percent voting is reported in Bengal. At the same time, the lowest voting in the entire country was seen in Bihar. There is news of only 47.50 percent voting in Bihar. In such a situation, questions are being raised that why did the voters not reach the polling station? 

Voters did not show the same enthusiasm as in 2019 and 2014.

This may increase the concern for the Bharatiya Janata Party because after the rise of the Modi era in national politics, there was a steady increase in the vote percentage. The vote percentage was good in 2014 and 2019. In this election, the BJP has set a target of Mission 370 for itself. There have been constant claims from the BJP that the party will easily reach this target.

After the fall in voting percentage, experts are raising questions whether like BJP leaders, BJP voters have also become victims of overconfidence? Did BJP voters not reach the polling booth? However, no detailed data has been revealed yet on the basis of which claims can be made about which area’s voter turnout was higher and which had lower turnout.

What could be the consequences of low voting in the states of North India?

Regarding Mission 370, BJP believed that BJP is already in a better position in its strong states UP, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh. At the same time, it is hopeful that it will once again perform brilliantly in these states and will perform brilliantly like in 2014, 2019. However, after the big drop in voting percentage, the problems of BJP leadership may increase. 

Will Mission South cause losses in the northern states?

BJP has been very active in this election regarding Mission South. PM Modi is continuously holding rallies in the southern states. In order to reach the target of 370, BJP will have to perform well in the southern states along with the success in North India. However, questions are arising whether BJP’s preparation in states like Rajasthan, UP, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar was lacking due to Mission South. 

Why are voters not enthusiastic even in BJP’s strong states? 

In Bihar, around 53 percent voting took place on these seats in the last Lok Sabha elections, whereas only about 47 percent votes were cast in this election. If we talk about Uttar Pradesh, the seats where voting took place in this phase had around 67 percent voting in the last election. Whereas this time only 57 percent votes were cast. In Madhya Pradesh too, a huge drop in vote percentage has been seen in this election as compared to the last election.

In Madhya Pradesh, 75 percent votes were cast in the last election, whereas in this election only 63 percent votes were cast. In Rajasthan, 64 percent votes were cast in the 2019 elections, whereas this time this figure has been only around 50 percent. 

Many times ruling parties have benefited from low voter turnout

However, on one hand, some experts are saying that low voter turnout is a warning signal for BJP. At the same time, some statistics show that low voter turnout in elections can be a sign that the public does not want change. It has been seen many times that when there has been bumper voting, there has been a change in power. More voting has been done to change the government.

What has been the effect of increase or decrease in voting percentage on the results? 

If we look at the data of the last 12 elections regarding the increase or decrease in voting percentage, then 7 times when the voting percentage has increased, there has been a change in power 4 times. Whereas 5 times when the voting percentage has decreased, there has been a change in power 4 times. In such a situation, to reach any kind of conclusion, we will have to wait till June 4. 

Voting was peaceful amidst sporadic incidents in the country

In the first phase of Lok Sabha elections, 60.03 percent voting was recorded till 7 pm on Friday in 102 seats of 21 states and union territories. During this, some sporadic incidents of violence were reported in West Bengal, while in Chhattisgarh a CRPF jawan was killed due to accidental explosion of a grenade launcher shell. An Election Commission spokesperson said that the voting figures are only estimated at present and the voting was peaceful and smooth. 

Along with the Lok Sabha elections, voting is also being held for the assembly elections in Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim on Friday. Those who voted for the first time at various polling stations included many newly married couples in wedding attire, handicapped people and some elderly people who came on stretchers and wheelchairs.