Monsoon 2024: On May 30, winds carrying moisture from the Arabian Sea reached the state of Kerala, signaling the arrival of the monsoon season. These moisture-laden winds clashed with the Western Ghats, resulting in the first monsoon showers. The monsoon initially advanced at a good pace, bringing relief from the summer heat until June 10. However, after this date, the progression of the monsoon slowed significantly. By June 21, the monsoon had spread to 14 states, yet many regions across the country, still grappling with severe heatwaves, were left eagerly awaiting its arrival.
Table of Contents
This report aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the 2024 monsoon season. We will examine the overall monsoon forecast, detailing when it is expected to reach different states, and the anticipated rainfall levels. Additionally, we will explore the factors contributing to the possibility of increased rainfall this year. Stay tuned to understand the dynamics of the 2024 monsoon and what it means for various parts of the country.
What is monsoon, where does it come from?
Monsoon comes from the Arabic word Mausim. It means season or season. In practical terms, monsoon is the name given to the south-western winds, which bring rain in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan. These winds rise from the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea and remain active from June to September.
The winds blowing through the Arabian Sea bring moisture with them to India. These winds first reach the sea coasts near Kerala. After this, they hit the hills of Western Ghats and cause rain here. After this, they reach other parts of the country.
Where is the monsoon that reached Kerala on May 30 now, when will it reach your state?
Usually the monsoon reaches Kerala on June 1. This time it reached 2 days earlier, i.e. on May 30. The speed was good till June 10, but it slowed down after that. According to IMD, the monsoon was not able to move forward after June 18. It remained stuck at places like Amravati, Jalgaon, Chandrapur etc. for three-four days. After June 20, the monsoon has moved forward once again.
Monsoon has reached almost all the states of South and Northeast. According to the Meteorological Department, two waves of monsoon winds will pass through Madhya Pradesh between 20 and 25 June. After this, monsoon rains will start here.
Monsoon is expected to reach Delhi, Haryana and Punjab only after June 25. Three waves of monsoon winds will pass through Rajasthan between June 25, June 30 and July 5. This will cause monsoon rains in the entire state. According to IMD, monsoon is expected to reach the entire country by July 15.
How much rain will there be this year in monsoon, where less and where more?
According to the Director General of Meteorological Department, Mrityunjay Mahapatra, the monsoon season in the country lasts from 1 June to 3 September, i.e. for about 3 months. During this time, about 721 mm of rain falls in the country. Which is considered normal rainfall.
In 2023, there was 639 mm rainfall, which was about 11% less than normal. The Meteorological Department estimates that this year there will be 870 mm rainfall. This will be 106% of the Long Period Average i.e. LPA. It is measured in proportion to the average rainfall of 50 years whether an area received more or less rainfall than normal.
Odisha, Bihar and Jharkhand are likely to receive normal or less rainfall this year. The reason for this is that in the last few years the direction of the monsoon wind blowing through the Bay of Bengal has changed. Earlier this wind used to pass through Jharkhand, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, whereas for the last few years this wind passes through Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.
According to meteorologist Mahesh Palawat, Central Indian states like Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are likely to receive more than normal rainfall this year. Apart from this, northern India like Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan will receive more than normal rainfall. The major reason for this is the activation of La-Nina in the Pacific Ocean.
What is the La Nina that is being said to be the reason for heavy rainfall this year?
Be it El Nino or La Nina, both these geographical phenomena occur in the world’s largest ocean, the Pacific Ocean, located between Asia and America. This ocean is like a bath tub. Just as moving a hand in a bath tub full of water causes the water to move from one place to another, similarly, due to the winds, the water of the Pacific Ocean flows from South America to Australia.
These winds blowing over the sea are called trade winds. The earth rotates from west to east. In such a situation, due to the Coriolis effect, these winds in the sea flow in the opposite direction i.e. from east to west.
In normal situations, warm winds come close to Australia and collect in the Pacific Ocean. Due to the water being hot, vapor is formed quickly. Due to this, there is heavy rainfall in Australia and its surrounding areas, while cold water from below the sea collects on the surface of the Pacific Ocean on the coasts of South America.
When La Nina arrives…
During La Nina, the winds blowing over the Pacific Ocean i.e. trade winds become stronger and start blowing faster. Because of this, more warm water gets collected near Australia.
Due to this, there is heavy rainfall in Australia and Asia. At the same time, there is a situation of severe drought in South America and its surrounding countries. It usually remains active for 3 to 4 years.
When did La Nina become active before 2024 and what was its effect?
Meteorologist Mahesh Palawat says that before 2024, La Nina was active for three consecutive years in 2020, 2021 and 2022. During this period, India received more rainfall than normal. El Nino became active in 2023. Due to this, there was very less rainfall in India and entire South Asia.
Like India, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Bangladesh and their neighbouring countries also receive good rainfall during La Niña. This year, Indonesia has already witnessed floods in early May. On the other hand, drought is common in southern regions of North America such as Panama, Costa Rica, Colombia, where winters become warmer than normal.
California and Florida also experience extreme heat. At the same time, heavy rains cause floods on the northwestern coast of Canada and the United States. South Africa also receives more rain than normal.
Hurricane activity increases over the Atlantic Ocean during La Niña. A record 30 hurricanes were born over the Atlantic Ocean during the La Niña year 2021. Whenever La Niña strengthens, there are devastating floods in northern Australia.
The year 2010 is an example of this. When La Niña caused devastating floods in Queensland, Australia, more than 10,000 people died. Due to this, Australia suffered a loss of more than 2 billion dollars. La Niña can remain active for 3 to 4 consecutive years. The last time La Niña came was in 2020, which remained active for three consecutive years.
