Elections 2024 Results: According to the results so far, the NDA government is being formed for the third consecutive time under the leadership of Narendra Modi, but this time the key to power will be in the hands of two big NDA partners Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu. In such a situation, BJP may face a setback in taking its core agenda forward.
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According to the trend of 4 pm on 4 June, BJP is leading on 244 seats. TDP is leading on 16 and JDU on 14 seats. 272 seats will be needed for majority. If we distribute the power of these parties on this basis, then BJP has 89% power and JDU and TDP have 5.5-5.5 percent power.
The power meter of 5.5% may look small, but it is enough to topple a government. We have calculated the power meter considering the majority figure i.e. 272 as 100%.
In this article, we will know on which points of BJP’s agenda Nitish-Naidu can create obstacles and on which issues they can put pressure on the government…
Nitish’s stand is different from BJP on the issue of reservation and minorities
During the Lok Sabha election campaign, Nitish Kumar said in rallies that he maintained communal harmony during his reign. He launched many important schemes for minorities. Despite being with the BJP, Nitish Kumar has given a message to the minority community that he will continue to protect their interests despite the alliance with the BJP.
Before joining BJP, Nitish had started a debate on reservation and had also conducted a caste-based survey in Bihar. JDU has been continuously saying that it is necessary to find out the correct population of castes to know whether all the classes are getting reservation at the right place and in the right number or not, for this a caste census should be conducted.
Here RJD has been saying till now that ‘Nitish Kumar can change the alliance for social justice.’
Nitish has changed sides 4 times in 10 years
Nitish has a history of changing sides. In the last 10 years, Nitish Kumar has changed sides 4 times. Twice he left NDA and joined the Mahagathbandhan and twice he left the Mahagathbandhan and joined NDA again. In such a situation, it is being said that if Nitish Kumar leaves NDA, it will create problems for BJP.
Will Chandrababu Naidu, who joined NDA before the elections, change sides?
Chandrababu’s party TDP was earlier also a part of the BJP-led NDA. In 2014, TDP and BJP fought the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections together, but in 2018, TDP distanced itself from BJP.
After this, the conflict between PM Modi and Naidu increased to such an extent that when the Prime Minister went to Andhra Pradesh, as per protocol, no TDP minister came to receive him. The level of personal attacks was such that Modi called Naidu a ‘traitor of father-in-law NT Rama Rao’ and Naidu, while attacking Modi, brought up the name of his wife Jasodaben.
After 6 years, on 9 March 2024, forgetting all the grievances, TDP again became a part of NDA. BJP is very weak organizationally in Andhra Pradesh. BJP does not even have any big leader in the state. Despite this, Naidu’s going with BJP is believed to be a personal reason.
Let us tell you that in September last year, Chandrababu Naidu was arrested in the alleged Andhra Pradesh Skill Development Corporation scam.
According to senior journalist Professor Nageshwar, ‘Chandrababu had walked out of the NDA alliance when his demand for special state status for Andhra Pradesh was not met. That demand is still unfulfilled, but after his arrest in the scam, Chandrababu was also afraid of central agencies. He felt that by going with the BJP, he would be saved from legal action.’
There has also been disagreement between TDP and BJP over Muslim reservation. BJP raised the issue of Muslim reservation during the election campaign to woo the Hindu majority. Chandrababu Naidu said during the campaign that he has been supporting 4% reservation for Muslims since the beginning.
On 29 April 2024, Naidu also said in a public meeting that once the government comes to power, one lakh rupees will be given to Haj pilgrims.
A faction within the Andhra Pradesh BJP was also unhappy with the alliance with TDP. According to a report in The Hindu, party leaders said on an open platform that the alliance with TDP is against the ideological strength of the BJP.
In today’s situation, TDP’s support is necessary for BJP, news is coming that Modi has spoken to Naidu over phone. It remains to be seen what conditions TDP puts in exchange for support to form the government.
Now we know which agendas of BJP can be obstructed and on which issues Nitish-Naidu can create pressure…
1. One Nation, One Election: Nitish may create hurdles
Implementing One Nation, One Election in the country is a big agenda of BJP. The committee formed in this regard has submitted its report to President Draupadi Murmu. It is being said that out of 47 political parties, 32 parties are ready. Since the role of JDU and TDP is important this time in the NDA alliance, they can become an obstacle to this agenda of BJP.
2. Uniform Civil Code: Nitish and Naidu will make the path difficult
Implementing Uniform Civil Code across the country has always been a part of BJP’s core agenda. BJP has already implemented Uniform Civil Code in states like Uttarakhand.
It was believed that after returning to power this time, BJP will push forward the agenda of implementing Uniform Civil Code, but now the allies can create problems for BJP. Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu can force BJP to take a backstep on this agenda.
3. Pressure to conduct caste census across the country
Nitish Kumar has already conducted caste census in Bihar. He has been demanding caste census across the country for a long time. In such a situation, it is obvious that this time he will put pressure on the Modi government for caste census. The big reason for this is that opposition parties, be it Congress or RJD, both have been continuously demanding caste census. Their pressure will also be on Nitish Kumar.
Of the 16 JDU candidates, six are from Other Backward Classes (OBC) and five from Extremely Backward Classes (EBC), which constitute 63% of Bihar’s total population; 3 candidates are from upper castes, which constitute only 15% of the population. Apart from this, one candidate each is from Mahadalit and Muslim community. Two of the candidates are also women.
Apart from the backward castes, JDU also has influence among Dalits and especially Muslim voters. During the Lok Sabha election campaign, Nitish Kumar said in rallies that he maintained communal harmony during his tenure.
4. Demand to give special state status to Bihar
Nitish Kumar has been demanding special state status for Bihar for a long time. In November last year, Nitish Kumar had demanded special state status for Bihar through a post on social media.
He had also talked about running a campaign in Bihar regarding this. Now since it will be difficult for BJP to run the government without Nitish’s support, it is obvious that he will put pressure on the Modi government.
5. Politics of Muslim appeasement
In May 2024, Chandrababu Naidu said in an interview, ‘We have been supporting 4% reservation for Muslims from the beginning and it will continue.’
Apart from this, Naidu had announced that as soon as the coalition government of TDP-Janasena and BJP is formed in Andhra Pradesh, Muslim pilgrims going to Mecca will be given financial assistance of Rs 1 lakh. Nitish Kumar also has a soft corner for Muslims. Muslims have been getting reservation in Bihar for a long time.
6. Demand for a powerful ministry in the cabinet
Along with Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu, Chirag Paswan and other allies will also pressurize for a powerful ministry in the Modi cabinet.
Even after forming the government with NDA in 2019, Nitish Kumar’s party initially refused to join the Modi cabinet. At that time, a minister from JDU was getting a place in the Modi cabinet, after which Nitish had said that we will not join the power just symbolically. However, later RCP Singh from Nitish’s party became a minister.
Chirag Paswan is also eyeing a powerful ministry. So far, he has not been able to become a minister in the Modi cabinet. He was not made a minister even after the death of Ram Vilas Paswan. Even during the Bihar elections in 2020, he was kept out of the alliance under pressure from Nitish.
