UP Politics: 5 Major Political Events in Uttar Pradesh Before the 5th Phase of Voting; Plans to Change the Equation Overnight?

UP Politics: Before the fifth phase of voting, 5 major incidents have changed the equation of many Lok Sabha seats of Uttar Pradesh. The seats whose equations are seen changing and changing include Kaushambi, Rae Bareli and Jaunpur. 

Voting is proposed on 14 seats of UP in the fifth phase of Lok Sabha elections.

In 2019, the parties of the India Alliance won only one of these 14 seats. However, in the new equations that are being formed, the India Alliance seems to be gaining advantage in at least 3 seats.

Where will voting take place in the 5th phase?

According to the Election Commission, in the 5th phase, elections will be held in the seats of Rae Bareli, Amethi, Mohanlalganj, Barabanki, Hamirpur, Banda, Fatehpur, Jhansi, Lucknow, Jalaun, Godda, Kaiserganj, Kaushambi and Faizabad in UP.

In 2019, the Bharatiya Janata Party won all the seats except Rae Bareli. However, this time the way 5 major political incidents happened before the voting has shocked the party.

If these 5 incidents have an impact on vote transfer, then the calculation of many seats can be affected. 

Now understand those 5 incidents in detail

1. Raja Bhaiya’s announcement of staying neutral in the elections

Kunda MLA and Jansatta Dal (Democratic) chief Raja Bhaiya has announced to stay neutral in the Lok Sabha elections. Raja Bhaiya made this announcement a few days after meeting Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

After the meeting at his residence on Wednesday, Raja Bhaiya said that we are not contesting the elections this time nor are we in alliance with anyone, so we have asked our supporters to vote for whoever they want.

Raja Bhaiya dominates the Kaushambi and Pratapgarh Lok Sabha seats of Uttar Pradesh. Jansatta Dal has MLAs in 2 out of 5 assembly seats of Kaushambi Lok Sabha.

In the 2019 elections, Raja Bhaiya’s candidate got 1 lakh 56 thousand votes on the Kaushambi seat. The margin of victory and defeat on this seat was about 39 thousand. This time, outgoing MP Vinod Sonkar is in the fray from BJP while Pushpendra Saroj, son of strong leader Indrajit Saroj, is in the fray from SP.

If we believe the figures of the 2022 elections, BJP got around 2 lakh 75 thousand votes in Kaushambi seat. On the other hand, SP got 4 lakh 30 thousand votes in all the assembly constituencies. Jansatta Dal got around 2 lakh votes. 

2. U-turn by Dhananjay Singh and Keshavdev Maurya

Former MP Dhananjay Singh, who had opened a front against the Bharatiya Janata Party before filing his nomination, has taken a U-turn. In a meeting in Jaunpur, Dhananjay Singh has said that he will support the BJP. Dhananjay Singh’s wife had also filed her nomination from here on the BSP symbol, but her nomination was withdrawn at the last moment. 

Voting for the Jaunpur Lok Sabha seat in Purvanchal is proposed in the sixth phase. 

Dhananjay last contested the election from Jaunpur Lok Sabha seat in 2014. He got around 65 thousand votes in this election. In 2022, he contested the assembly election from Malhani assembly seat and stood second. 

Presently Dhananjay’s wife Srikala Reddy is the president of Jaunpur District Panchayat. 

Like Dhananjay, Keshavdev Maurya of Mahan Dal has also taken a U-turn. Maurya was supporting SP here till now, but at the last moment he has withdrawn his support.

BJP’s Kripashankar, SP’s Babu Singh Kushwaha and BSP’s Shyam Sundar Yadav are in the fray for Jaunpur seat. Last time, BSP’s Shyam Sundar Yadav had won with the support of SP. 

3. Akhilesh’s silence on Rahul Gandhi’s PM candidature

Before the 5th phase of voting, Akhilesh Yadav and Arvind Kejriwal held a joint press conference in Lucknow. In this conference, when Akhilesh was asked a question about Rahul’s PM candidature, Akhilesh avoided the question. 

Congress workers are constantly engaged in projecting Rahul Gandhi as the PM. The 5th phase of elections in UP is the most important for the Congress. The party is contesting on 4 Lok Sabha seats in this phase.

These include Rae Bareli, Amethi, Barabanki and Jhansi seats.

4. Sonia Gandhi entered the field to save the Congress stronghold

Sonia Gandhi entered the field to campaign for the first time in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections . Sonia appealed to the people to vote for her son Rahul in Rae Bareli. Addressing the rally, Sonia said that I am handing over my son to you and Rahul will not disappoint you.

Rae Bareli seat is considered a stronghold of Congress and Sonia herself is an MP here since 2004. 

There are many discussions about Sonia Gandhi’s rally at the last moment. It is being said that Sonia Gandhi does not want to take any kind of risk on this seat. There are two big reasons for this- 

1. Rahul had lost the election from Amethi seat next to Rae Bareli last time. This seat is also considered a stronghold of Congress.

2. Congress’ margin is constantly decreasing in Rae Bareli seat. Congress was wiped out from here in the 2022 assembly elections. 

5. SP MLA Manoj Pandey joins BJP

Before the 5th phase of elections, SP MLA from Raebareli’s Unchahar seat Manoj Pandey joined the Bharatiya Janata Party. Amit Shah gave him party membership in a rally. Pandey’s supporters also demonstrated their strength during this time.

Manoj Pandey had rebelled against SP during the Rajya Sabha elections, but was said to be angry for not getting a ticket from Rae Bareli. Recently, Amit Shah had visited Pandey’s house to pacify his anger. 

Pandey has been an MLA from Unchahar seat in Rae Bareli since 2012. He got 82,514 votes in the 2022 elections. Talking about 2019, in 2019, Sonia Gandhi got 1 lakh 3 thousand votes and Dinesh Singh got 76 thousand votes on Unchahar seat.

If Manoj Pandey plays a big role in Unchahar, then the equation here can be bad for Rahul Gandhi.